What the NATO Threat Landscape Report 2026 reveals about trusted access and cyber risk

New NATO threat research highlights a familiar challenge for every security team: attackers are exploiting trust, not just technology.

Key takeaways

• The 2026 NATO Threat Landscape Report argues that the greatest cyber risk no longer comes from attacks on well-defended core networks. Instead, risk increasingly flows through suppliers, cloud providers, contractors, and other trusted partners.
• Identity-based attacks, credential theft and account compromise now play a larger role than many traditional exploit-driven attacks.
• Data theft and unauthorized access significantly outweigh destructive attacks such as ransomware and wipers, suggesting that attackers increasingly view access itself as the prize.

A cybersecurity report written for a military alliance may seem distant from the daily work of defending business networks. But the 2026 NATO Threat Landscape Report includes universally applicable findings about how modern attacks move through interconnected environments, trusted access and third-party relationships.

The report argues that as NATO hardens its core infrastructure, adversaries increasingly look for weaker points in the surrounding ecosystem: cloud providers, software vendors, contractors, logistics partners, and other organizations with legitimate access. That framing should be familiar to any security team. Few organizations operate inside a clean perimeter anymore.

Why does third-party access create hidden security risk?

One of the report’s strongest themes is that trusted third parties have become preferred paths into hardened targets. Attackers do not always need to breach the primary organization directly if they can compromise a supplier, service provider or integration with standing access.

For security leaders, the question is no longer only “How well are we protected?” It is also “Which vendors, partners and identities can reach critical systems, and how quickly would we know if that trust were abused?”

Why has identity become a primary cyber target?

The report also reinforces the central role of identity-based attacks. Credential theft, cloud identity abuse, phishing, MFA bypass, exposed tokens, and stolen access all give attackers what they need most: legitimate-looking entry points into legitimate systems.

This is why identity has become a primary control plane. Attackers often do not need a novel exploit if they can sign in as a trusted user, use approved services and blend into normal activity long enough to escalate privileges, move laterally or exfiltrate data.

Email remains a critical part of that problem. Phishing continues to work because many campaigns now mimic routine business workflows and cloud notifications. The report’s finding that 62.3% of phishing pages use HTTPS is a reminder that “look for the padlock” is no longer meaningful security advice.

Why do attackers value access more than destruction?

Ransomware still matters, but the report points to a broader pattern: Data theft, credential compromise and unauthorized access account for a larger share of observed activity than destructive attacks. Roughly two-thirds of dark web activity targeting NATO countries involves data theft or credential-related incidents.

That should change how defenders prioritize risk. Stolen access can be sold, reused for business email compromise, used for espionage, leveraged in fraud, or held for later operations. In many cases, access itself is the product.

Why these findings matter to every organization

The report discusses activity associated with Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, but the practical takeaway is broader. Techniques associated with advanced operators often migrate into criminal campaigns, especially when they are effective, reusable and profitable.

That convergence is visible in the tactics both groups use: exploiting trusted relationships, targeting suppliers, stealing credentials, abusing cloud platforms, and hiding behind legitimate tools.

How can organizations turn NATO’s findings into practical action?

The report points to a practical conclusion: Many organizations are still weighted toward perimeter defense and recovery planning when much of today’s risk starts with identity misuse, cloud access and trusted relationships.

Security teams should focus on five practical priorities:

• Reduce credential theft with stronger authentication, phishing-resistant controls and better user training.
• Monitor cloud and SaaS environments for suspicious sign-ins, impossible travel, privilege changes, and unusual data access.
• Review how vendors, contractors and service providers access critical systems.
• Test backup and recovery plans against scenarios involving account compromise as well as destructive attacks.
• Tune detection and response around identity abuse, not only malware execution.

These are not abstract geopolitical lessons. They map directly to the problems security teams see every day: phishing that leads to credential theft, supplier access that creates blind spots, and cloud accounts that attackers can exploit quietly if monitoring is weak.

Barracuda can help address these risks with layered protection across email, identity-focused detection and recovery. Barracuda Email Protection helps reduce phishing and credential theft, Barracuda Managed XDR helps identify suspicious activity across users and devices and Barracuda Cloud-to-Cloud Backup boosts resilience by ensuring easy recovery when preventive controls fail.

The most important insight from the NATO report is that modern cybersecurity is increasingly about protecting trust: identities, partners, cloud services and business relationships. Attackers understand where that trust creates leverage. Security teams need the same visibility.